House Price Market Update for November 2010
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November property prices and volumes continue to show a 'depressed' picture from a 'national' perspective. The number of properties available for sale has started to slide slightly as potential sellers worry more about getting through Christmas rather than putting their properties on the market.
Past Indicators
The year on year growth in property prices in 2010 versus 2009 are, as predicted, being eroded by a lack of growth in the second half of this year. So the reported '10% increases' in the first half of the year are now down to just a few percent nationally. The most accurate reporting for 'past indicators' is the Land Registry, which shows October's average property price is £165,505 versus £160,118 in 2009, only a £5k difference. The highest difference year on year was May 2010 versus 2009 of just over £13,000.
Current Indicators
The best indicators of what's happening now is to look at the supply and demand aspects such as number of properties coming onto the market and whether buyers are on the increase or decrease. The supply of properties is on the decline, with Rightmove stats suggesting each agent has an average of 74 properties, down from the near 80 in the summer.
Buyers too are on the decline as we head towards Christmas with Hometrack showing a 4% decline in the number of buyers registering to find properties.
Despite the falls in stock and buyers, the number of properties being sold per agent (NAEA) hasn't changed and remains at approximately seven with the number of sold versus for sale boards remaining at around 25% versus a long term average of 40%.
Future Indicators
Confidence and volume hold the key to what will happen in the property market in the future. Land Registry figures show sales are up for properties over £300,000, suggesting those who are equity rich are able to continue to move and those with 'average' property values will probably struggle for the next few years as they can't secure finance nor gain equity through property price growth.
From a confidence perspective, media talk of falling property prices and the 'doom and gloom' reporting following spending cuts is likely to keep property activity and prices down for the next few months from a national perspective.
READ MORE - Read Kate's latest summary on the property market and find out what's happening in your area, ignore the headlines, let Kate help you work it out for yourself. READ MORE
What should Buyers and Sellers do in 2011?
Buyers typically either take a 'back seat' in looking for properties up until Christmas unless they really have to move, in which case they can be highly motivated purchasers, keen to get a deal to ensure they move into their new home as soon as possible in the New Year.
As such, it's likely that property prices and volumes for November and December are likely to be depressed versus 2009 as last year's incentive of beating the stamp duty increase isn't around and although the VAT rise will affect costs of buying and selling, it won't be significant enough to encourage people to purchase.
For anyone that has a property for sale or is looking to buy a property now and in 2011, it is worth taking time out over the Christmas period to consider their finances and future and whether this really is the right time to buy and sell.
Performance and commentary since January 2009:-
Click here to see our latest buying/selling articles
Headline Statistics for November 2010
Headline Statistics | Statistics | +/- | Source | Month |
Average Prices | £165,505 to £229,379 | +3.4% to +1.3% YoY | Land Registry Lowest
Rightmove Highest | Oct/Nov data |
Transactions* | 59,512* | +7% YoY | Land Registry | May to Aug 10 |
Time to Sell | 9.8 Weeks | Slightly up on last month | Hometrack | November |
Number of viewings to sale | 12 | No change from last month | Hometrack | November |
Offer to Market Price | 92.4% | Slight reduction on last month | Hometrack | November |
% change in new buyers registering with agents | -4.3% | A decrease on last month | Hometrack | November |
No of houses sold by agents | 7 | No change on previous month | NAEA | October |
% sold versus for sale boards | 24.8% | Slightly up on last month | For Sale Sign Analysis | November |
Number of new mortgages | 47,315 | A decrease on last month | Bank of England | October |
* Per month
Sold versus For Sale Sign Boards data*
Month 2010 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Percentage
Sold | 26% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 26.5% | 30.9% | 25.5% | 26% | 25.8% | 22.3% | 24.4% | 24.8% |
Month 2009 | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Percentage
Sold | 16% | 12% | 17% | 19.5% | 21.1% | 28.3% | 29.5% | 30.2% | 36.3% | 27.3% | 31% | 34% | 26.7% |
*Data provided by FSSA, for more information on this data,
Contact usLinks to useful Buying and Selling Reports
Price Indices
There are at least seven property indices and other companies that comment on the property market, please checkout the links below:-
Rightmove Halifax Nationwide RICS
Communities Financial Times Land Registry Other Useful Resources
Hometrack NAEA RICS Savills Knight FrankDOWNLOAD Savills Residential Property Focus for Winter 2010
For more market commentary on a national or local level:-
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